Small Craft Advisory? Really?

On Saturday I went sailing with friends from work. The morning brought storms across the entire area, but had passed over the Waukegan area by 9:00. We left the dock at 11:30 to overcast skies, but they cleared after about an hour and a half. Winds started out light in the 5 knot range and then grew a bit to the 10 knot range. Wave were in the 1-2 foot range.

It was a nice leisurely sail.

On Sunday my brother and I went out. The day started out with little wind then dropped to zero for a while. At 1:00, as if someone turned on a fan, the winds went from 0 to about 10 knots and then to 15 knots for the rest of the afternoon. Waves were in the 1-3 foot range.

It was a good sail.

On Sunday, the NOAA marine forecast had a small craft advisory in effect. For Lake Michigan that means “Sustained winds or frequent gusts between 22 and 33 knots inclusive, and/or seas or waves greater than 4 feet.” The forecast was for winds in the 20-25 knot range and waves 5-6 feet with an occasional 10 footer with winds and waves decreasing throughout the afternoon.

If the waves were actually getting to 10 feet, we would not have gone out sailing. Based on my experience though, over the last couple years, I know better than to base my sailing on a NOAA weather forecast. So, my brother and I decided to go to the boat and see for ourselves what the weather was like.

When we got there winds were less than 10 knots and waves were in the 1-3 foot range.

So we went out, had an excellent sail and had the “rail in the water” a couple times.

Rail in the Water

Even though the forecast called for decreasing winds and wave through the afternoon, we experienced just the opposite. While we were out winds built to 20 knots and waves to 2-4 feet with an occasional 6 footer thrown in for good measure.

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